Apparently, new statistics indicate record-low asylum applications in Germany following COVID-19. However, does this data fully capture the extent of displacement overseas?
Reports from German media suggest that the number of individuals applying for asylum in the country is decreasing; however, experts advise viewing these statistics with skepticism.
During the weekend, the German newspaper Welt am Sonntag As reported so far, unreleased data indicates that France had the highest number of asylum applications from January to March 2025 within the European Union, with 40,871 requests. This was followed by Spain with 39,318 applications and Germany with 37,387 applications.
Although the European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA) hasn't confirmed this information yet, recent reports from both the bloc and Germany’s Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF) indicate a decrease in asylum applications submitted to Germany.
This month, BAMF recorded 10,647 application submissions in Germany for March, marking the lowest number since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The figures indicate a decline.
According to the latest yearly report from the European Union, Germany continues to be the leading recipient of asylum seekers within the bloc. However, the number of applications decreased by about one-third in 2024 when compared to the previous year, 2023.
Over one million applications were submitted across the EU in 2024. down 11% year-on-year.
This encompasses a continuous decrease in applications since October, primarily because of a reduction in submissions from individuals originating from Syria, Afghanistan, and Turkey.
In a statement, the EUAA informed DIWIDA.NEWS that they were “cognizant of the report in” Welt am Sonntag As the Agency does not address unauthorized disclosures, we cannot provide comments on or confirmation of the data being reported in German media."
'Not a choice'
Individuals might have to leave their homeland and pursue asylum due to various factors such as political unrest, warfare, dangers to personal security, harassment, and environmental shifts caused by global warming.
"Choosing to be a refugee or an asylum seeker isn’t an option," stated Sarah Wolff, who specializes in migration and asylum policies at Leiden University in the Netherlands.
Neither do asylum seekers " shop around" for various countries to request asylum, according to Wolff.
Typically, asylum seekers possess minimal knowledge regarding possible destinations when they escape, often opting to seek safety in nations close to where they initially fled.
"Therefore, Europe isn't always the top choice since it's quite challenging to reach," Wolff explained.
The existence of well-established ethnic groups—diasporas—is frequently among the key factors considered when individuals apply for asylum. According to a 2024 research paper from the University of Southampton in the UK, "social connections" were found to be the primary attraction for people pursuing asylum status.
Even though official statistics indicate a decrease in initial asylum requests across Europe, these numbers fail to provide a comprehensive understanding of this intricate matter.
A downward trajectory? The figures don't tell the whole story.
Although better conditions in locations that traditionally see high numbers of asylum seeker applications might explain this shift, alternative reasons also exist.
"Indeed, it's multifaceted," Wolff stated.
Consider Afghanistan, where submissions to the EU significantly decreased in 2024.
The issue isn't their lack of desire to seek asylum; rather, it has become extremely challenging for them to leave the country altogether.
Delays or limitations in handling applications or making decisions can similarly affect statistical outcomes and obscure the causes behind abrupt decreases in the data.
Historically, Syria has accounted for the highest number of asylum requests in Germany; however, these filings have decreased recently. Concurrently, with the potential ousting of the Assad administration, the German government decided to halt processing applications from Syrians.
Therefore, it remains uncertain if a possibly more stable political climate within Syria is causing fewer people to leave the country, or if German policies are discouraging potential applicants.
"The full extent of how changes in the Syrian regime might affect arrivals in Germany could take some additional time before it becomes completely clear both quantitatively and qualitatively," said Alberto-Horst Neidhard, who leads the European Diversity and Migration initiative at the European Policy Centre, during an interview with DIWIDA.NEWS.|
Neidhard suggested that the reported data should be interpreted based on long-term patterns instead of short-term fluctuations from one month to another.
"Over previous years, we've experienced highs and lows that call for a cautious approach, especially regarding asylum figures," Neidhard stated.
Not an indicator of security
A recent decrease in asylum applications at the national level or within a collective entity such as the European Union doesn’t indicate that fewer individuals are applying for asylum globally.
Domestic policy adjustments, like a nation deciding to refuse handling submissions, threats of deportation , border controls , or public hostility towards refugees Within a possible host country, such deterrents could dissuade individuals, especially those fleeing violence and persecution, from pursuing asylum.
"They must face various circumstances, including risky ones, commit significant funds, and additionally negotiate the intricacies of differing laws to arrive at their destination countries," Neidhart stated.
In addition to being costly, the process of applying for asylum also requires considerable time.
Neidhard stated that asylum figures ought to be evaluated in historical perspective and as part of broader long-term patterns.
"From a historical perspective and relative to current population figures, these numbers align with what we've observed previously," he stated.
I don't anticipate a considerable decrease in asylum applications unless there are profoundly disturbing occurrences such as the pandemic, for instance.
Additionally, it’s crucial to prevent the public from expecting that irregular migration can be entirely eliminated, or viewing a reduction in asylum claims as evidence of global safety.
Edited by: Andreas Illmer
Author: Matthew Ward Agius