When it comes to enhancing market access in India, the US focuses on three key agricultural products: soybeans, maize (corn), and cotton.
The desire for "openness" might increase even further due to U.S. President Donald Trump's threat to implement what he calls reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods starting from April 2: "We will charge them the same duties they levy on us."
The United States is a major exporter of all three commodities, with their total export value reaching nearly $62 billion in 2022 (refer to the table for details).
Notably significant is China’s role as the largest buyer of U.S. soybeans and cotton, even though its acquisitions dropped from $17.9 billion to $12.8 billion for soybeans and from $2.9 billion to $1.5 billion for cotton during the period spanning 2022 through 2024.
In 2022, China was the leading buyer of American corn, with imports valued at $5.2 billion. However, this figure dropped significantly to $328 million by 2024. Starting from 2023, Mexico and Japan took over as the primary purchasers of U.S. corn.
India — a promising marketplace
Against this backdrop, a recent report from the USDA’s economic research service titled 'The Increasing Demand for Animal Products and Feed in India' offers an intriguing read.
The report forecasts an uptick in India’s use of animal-based goods—such as dairy, eggs, seafood, and poultry—as both the populace grows and individual incomes rise. This escalation will consequently fuel the requirement for more livestock fodder, potentially necessitating significant imports of components like maize and soybeans "as soon as the early 2030s."
India’s domestic maize consumption is projected to increase from 34.7 million tonnes (mt) in the fiscal year 2022-23 to 98 mt in 2040 and 200.2 mt in 2050 assuming "fast" economic expansion (at an annual rate of 6.6%). If the yearly income growth moderates to 4.6%, then this figure will rise only slightly, reaching 62.8 mt in 2040 and 93 mt in 2050. The usage of soya bean meal could also see similar increases, rising from 6.2 mt during 2022-23 to 30.9 mt and 68.3 mt respectively over those periods with rapid income growth. Under moderate income growth conditions, however, it might reach 17.7 mt in 2040 and 28.3 mt in 2050.
To meet the increased demand under the "rapid" income growth scenario, 46 million tons and 134 million tons of corn, along with 19 million tons and 53 million tons of soybean meal, would have to be imported in 2040 and 2050, respectively. In contrast, should income growth remain moderate, corn imports would amount to 11 million tons in 2040 and 26 million tons in 2050, whereas soybean meal imports would stand at 6 million tons and 13 million tons during these years accordingly.
In simple terms, India presents significant market opportunities for American corn and soybeans, particularly as China decreases its purchases or looks for supplies from alternative providers such as Brazil and Argentina.
Underlying assumptions
For some context, China imported 112 million tons of soybeans, 23.4 million tons of corn, 15.9 million tons of barley, 8.3 million tons of sorghum, 5.5 million tons of rapeseed, and 9.4 million tons of oilseed meal during the period from 2023 to 2024. A significant portion of these imports was used to satisfy the feed requirements for their vast herds of pigs and flocks of poultry: China houses approximately half of the global pig population and one-fifth of its chicken population.
According to the USDA report, India ranks significantly lower in terms of animal product consumption compared to global standards. In 2020, India's per capita consumption stood at just 82.6 kg, far beneath the worldwide average of 143 kg. This figure breaks down with milk accounting for the largest portion at 66.3 kg, trailed by fish at 7.9 kg, eggs at 3.9 kg, poultry meat at 2.6 kg, beef at 1.1 kg, mutton at 0.6 kg, and pork at only 0.2 kg.
India's production of animal-based goods has shown notable average yearly growth—ranging from 8.5% for poultry, 5.8% for eggs, 5.1% for cattle and buffalo meat, 5% for dairy, and 3.9% for butter and ghee—from 2000 to 2022. However, the production of goat and sheep meat grew by only 0.8%, falling short compared to the mean population increase of 1.4% over the same duration.
The robust expansion of the livestock industry can be seen in the significant increase in domestic corn consumption, which has almost tripled from 12 million tonnes in 2002-03 to 34.7 million tonnes in 2022-23, with usage for animal feed increasing fourfold (from 5.2 million tonnes to 20.6 million tonnes).
However, whether the anticipated growth in the consumption of animal products and the resultant demand for feed will match the projections made by the USDA research report remains debatable. So far, India has only played a small role as an importer of feed ingredients. There have been instances when substantial amounts of corn (458,470 metric tons in 2019-20) and soybean meal/cake (679,843 metric tons in 2021-22) were imported. According to the report, overall feed usage was estimated at around 46.4 million metric tons in 2022, with imports contributing just about 178,969 metric tons.
Although these quantities pale in comparison to those from China, one thing is clear: the United States views India as a significant future market for its corn and soybeans. At present, India imposes a 45% basic custom duty on imported soyabeans and a 50% duty on corn imports.
Moreover, it includes limitations concerning genetically modified (GM) items, which essentially prohibit the importation of maize, soybeans, or their derivatives from the United States. It would not come as a surprise to witness the Trump administration advocating for the removal of such tariffs and non-tariff obstacles on American maize and soybeans.
Cotton — shifting from an exporting nation to an importing one
The third crop of focus is cotton, wherein the United States led as the global top exporter until Brazil surpassed it in the period from 2023 to 2024.
The chart provided illustrates that India’s cotton production tripled from 13.6 million to 39.8 million bales from the period spanning 2002-03 to 2013-14, after which it gradually decreased to reach a 16-year low of 29.9 million bales during this harvest season.
The development of genetically modified (GM) cotton hybrids with genes sourced from the Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt), which targets the American bollworm, allowed India to become the globe’s second-largest producer (following China) and exporter (behind the United States) by the period 2011–12. However, these advancements were undermined because no novel GM technologies received approval for commercial use post-2006, leading to current Bt hybrid varieties becoming vulnerable to different pests such as the pink bollworm and whitefly.
The anticipated cotton imports for India during the period of 2024-25 (from October to September) are expected to reach 3 million bales, exceeding its predicted exports which stand at 1.7 million bales. This figure contrasts sharply with the peak export level of 13 million bales recorded back in 2011-12.
This shift from a net exporting country to an importing one would offer the United States a chance to increase its cotton shipments to India. In 2022, U.S. exports to India amounted to $491.2 million, dropped to $231.2 million in 2023, and further fell to $210.7 million in 2024—this downward trend might reverse as the current 11% duty on imported natural fiber gets eliminated.
India might have a greater likelihood of emerging as the largest market for the US when it comes to cotton rather than soybean or corn. It could also be suggested that eliminating duties on raw cotton imports has the potential to enhance India’s textile and clothing exports to the US, which amounted to $10.8 billion in 2024.
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