Belarus is emerging as an ever more unpredictable actor in Eastern Europe, with the nation moving deeper into Russia’s sphere of control, according to opposition figurehead Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya in a conversation with Euronews. She cautioned that Belarus might become a starting point for potential military actions targeting Ukraine and other Western neighbors.
In February, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy disclosed during an event in Munich that Russia intends to deploy as many as 150,000 soldiers in Belarus within the current year, possibly posing a threat to NATO nations. As Belarus continues to move closer politically towards Moscow, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya contends that the country’s autonomy is under threat, leading to ambiguity regarding both its destiny and the safety of surrounding states.
For Tsikhanouskaya, sanctions continue to be an essential means of preventing additional Russian aggression. She stated, “The focus is on transforming our nation, and sanctions serve as one of the most potent tools.” According to her, “A steadfast strategy is necessary when dealing with dictators; we believe that sanctions should be used to shape their conduct.” Furthermore, she explained, “We advocate using these measures as leverage during negotiations, but ultimately, our objective remains freeing all individuals and conducting genuine democratic elections,” she conveyed. The Europe Conversation.
Recent indications of increasing integration between Russia and Belarus have sparked concerns. Although Belarusian residents can now take part in elections, Tsikhanouskaya believes this represents a move towards Belarus being absorbed by Russia. She described it as a gradual annexation occurring with Lukashenko’s consent, noting he acts as Putin's pawn. According to her, Lukashenko is willing to trade away their sovereignty, independence, and nation to Russia simply to retain his grip on power.
She contended that the process of Russification has been progressively moving forward, as agreements have been struck without regard for Belarus’s national interests. “Regardless of voter turnout, these events cannot be classified as genuine elections,” remarked Tsikhanouskaya. She added that it is indeed alarming that under Lukashenko’s leadership, Belarus is being drawn nearer to Russia through his actions.
Although Tsikhanouskaya doesn’t view the circumstances as involving direct territorial seizure akin to what happened in Ukraine, she thinks it revolves around ensuring a leadership devoted to Moscow. She explains, “Their aim is to establish a compliant administration that gives the semblance of sovereignty while actually having officials answerable to Putin. In this way, they could utilize our territory for potential invasions—such as into the European Union—or merely advance their propaganda goals. Essentially, they desire a marionette regime within the nation.”
Launchpad for an invasion
During the Munich Security Conference, Zelenskyy delivered a strong warning that Russia could potentially utilize Belarus as a staging ground for an assault, much like the attack on Ukraine in 2022. Tsikhanouskaya echoed his apprehensions. She stated, “As long as Lukashenko remains in control, Belarusian territory may serve once more as a starting point for an offensive against Ukraine or our western neighbors.”
The possibility of such an invasion still remains uncertain. "This situation demonstrates that the democratic world struggles to clearly articulate their stance on accepting oppression or whether invasions of sovereign nations can occur unchecked. They lack effective means to address this issue. There is a chance that these forces could reach the borders of the European Union."
Tsikhanouskaya contended that autocrats only comprehend the discourse of strength, stating: "Should you fail to wield this authority, should you not exhibit courage and daring, dictators will assert, 'Very well, we shall trample over the subsequent red line.'"
Democratic aspirations remain intact
Tsikhanouskaya stayed optimistic about Belarus' future, acknowledging that transformation could occur via multiple pathways. She stated, "Transformation in Belarus might unfold through numerous channels, yet the crucial aspect is that democratic entities, our community, and Europe should be ready for such shifts."
Even though the present situation seems challenging, Tsikhanouskaya felt that Belarusians’ desire for democracy has not disappeared. “It’s important to keep in mind that those protesting on the streets are just one segment of the opposition against the government. The absence of visible unrest does not imply resignation; instead, it suggests that citizens are strategizing and will be prepared when an opportunity for transformation arises.”
According to Tsikhanouskaya, there are greater opportunities for changing the regime in Belarus compared to Russia.