One of the top three most frequented nations globally is the United States.
The major attractions – cities like San Francisco, New York, and Chicago along with national parks such as Yosemite – have lured international travelers for many years. Coupled with its status as a leading global economic force, this resulted in 66.5 million visitors in 2023, with predictions suggesting an even greater number of arrivals in 2024.
However, significant transformations have occurred over the past few months, which could impact the robustness of 2025 statistics. With Donald Trump being reelected for presidency in 2024, leading to alterations in U.S. foreign policy and interactions, along with domestic cultural evolutions, global perceptions toward America seem to be shifting. These altered viewpoints might be influencing travelers' interest in visiting the country.
According to a recent report from Tourism Economics, incoming travel to the U.S. is expected to drop by 5.5% this year rather than increase by almost 9%, as initially predicted. An intensification of tariffs and trade disputes might lead to additional decreases in global tourism, potentially resulting in an $18 billion (£13.8 billion) yearly decrease in tourist expenditure by 2025.
Some indications of canceled trips have already surfaced. Following President Trump’s announcement of 25% tariffs on numerous Canadian products, the number of Canadians crossing into the U.S. at certain borders dropped by as much as 45% on particular days compared to last year. Canada leads as the largest provider of foreign visitors to the United States. In response to declining demand, Air Canada stated they will cut back on flights to several U.S. tourist spots such as Las Vegas starting in March.
A survey conducted in March by Canadian market research firm Leger revealed that 36% of Canadians who had scheduled trips to the United States had canceled their plans. Data provided by aviation analysis company OAG indicates that passenger reservations for flights between Canada and the U.S. have dropped more than 70% when contrasted with the corresponding timeframe from the previous year. Following this trend, the U.S. Travel Association cautioned that a decrease of just 10% in incoming travelers from Canada might lead to a $2.1 billion USD ($1.6 billion GBP) decline in expenditures, potentially jeopardizing around 140,000 positions within the hospitality sector.
Certain potential tourists have expressed reservations about visiting the U.S., citing an inhospitable political atmosphere—this includes hostile comments towards foreigners, immigrants, and the LGBTQ+ community. The Tourism Economics study additionally pointed out "divisive policies and remarks from the Trump administration" as contributing factors behind canceled trips.
Various elements could affect visitors coming from regions like Western Europe, which accounted for 37% of international trips to the U.S. last year. Factors such as increased domestic costs due to U.S. tariffs and the perception that the U.S. government supports Russia amid the conflict in Ukraine also play a role.
A study conducted by YouGov in March revealed that Western Europeans' views toward the U.S. have grown increasingly unfavorable following President Trump's re-election in November. Over half of respondents from Britain (53%), Germany (56%), Sweden (63%), and Denmark (74%) expressed negative sentiments about the country. In five out of the seven nations surveyed, these favorable opinions stand at their lowest point since tracking started back in November 2016.
Several prominent incidents at the U.S. border might be deterring visitors. For instance, in March, a British citizen was arrested and kept in custody for over ten days by U.S. Customs Enforcement due to an issue with her visa. Around the same time, a traveler from Canada faced detainment when trying to extend her visa at the U.S.-Mexico boundary. Throughout her 12-day confinement, she was placed in overcrowded holding areas and even restrained with shackles.
Mexico is the US’s second largest inbound travel market. Tourism Economics suggests that issues around new border enforcement rules will raise concerns with potential Mexican tourists. During Trump’s first term in office, Mexican visits to the US fell by 3%. In February this year, air travel from Mexico had already fallen 6% when compared to 2024.
A number of nations such as Canada have been revising their guidance regarding travel to the U.S. For example, on March 15, the UK’s Foreign and Commonwealth Office modified its recommendations for traveling to America, cautioning tourists that they "could face arrest or confinement" should they violate regulations. This was an update from the earlier statement issued in February which did not include any warnings about potential arrests or detentions. Similarly, Germany has also adjusted its travel advisories following reports of multiple German citizens being held at length by American border authorities over recent times.
Several European nations such as France, Germany, Denmark, and Norway have likewise released targeted advisories aimed at transgender and non-binary individuals regarding traveling abroad. Meanwhile, U.S. officials require visitors to state their sex assigned at birth when applying for visas. Additionally, the U.S. government has ceased providing passports featuring an X marker, which is typically utilized by people who identify as non-binary, to American citizens.
With countless travelers opting out of trips to the US, alternative locations are experiencing a rise in inquiries. Bermuda’s hotels have noted an uptick in reservations as Canadians shift both their business and leisure travel plans elsewhere, leading some experts to forecast a potential 20 percent boost in income from Canadian tourists.
Europe has also seen an increase in bookings from Canada, with rental properties reporting a 32% rise in summer reservations this year compared to the previous one, as per certain reports.
Concerns are mounting about how visa and entry limitations might hinder both spectators and participants from fully experiencing the 2026 Men’s FIFA World Cup across venues in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. Travelers hailing from certain nations like Brazil, Turkey, and Colombia may face waits of nearly 700 days for their visa approvals. Additionally, the International Olympic Committee has voiced worries regarding the organization of the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles; however, American authorities maintain that "America will remain welcoming."
As visa processing times increase, border controls get tighter, and worries about human rights violations along with anti-minority statements escalate, the U.S. could lose its charm as a premier travel spot. This might have severe repercussions for its tourism sector that would be hard to overcome in the future.
Ross Bennett-Cook is a PhD researcher at the Carnegie School of Sport within Leeds Beckett University.
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