NATO partners are preparing for significant 'rebalancing' in their role to safeguard Europe, yet according to diplomats speaking to DIwida.Blog just before an important gathering in Brussels, this shift in responsibilities is vital to ensure continued American participation in the alliance.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is in Brussels on Thursday and Friday attending his first meeting of NATO foreign affairs ministers where he’s expected to hammer home US demands that the burden of security and defence of the alliance has ‘shifted’ to Europeans.
However, Europe will also send this message to him: attempting to act independently without the backing of its 31 allies is not advisable.
The message from Rubio will be straightforward: Europeans must assume greater responsibility for their own conventional defense so that America can deploy its military resources elsewhere. Additionally, they aim for European countries to increase their defense spending to 5%. A senior NATO official familiar with the matter shared this information with DIwida.Blog.
"To maintain America’s position within the alliance, burden shifting must occur," the official stated.
The allies are preparing for a reduction in the number of U.S. troops deployed across Europe as part of their NATO commitments.
At present, approximately 100,000 troops are safeguarding NATO territories, and member nations are contemplating whether the US might decrease these numbers by roughly 20,000 to 50,000 soldiers.
The US has provided no official sign of this, but Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth cautioned last month that "one cannot assume America's presence will endure indefinitely."
"We require American forces in Europe – currently at 100,000 troops, yet I believe this figure will diminish; having just half of them would suffice," stated a diplomat before today’s summit.
The impact of the US unwinding its presence after years of engagement would be severe but allies also say that if and when an announcement comes, they expect to be fully informed directly, and not find out from the media.
Moreover, a European diplomat has told DIwida.Blogthat it would be "hard to digest" if an announcement emerged from US talks with Russia.
"If they do it, then the US scale back in an orderly way – we don’t want to read in the press that they’re pulling out, we need a process," the diplomat said, adding: "And It would be very dramatic if it was a result of negotiations with Moscow – that would be hard to digest."
Despite recent confrontations from the Trump administration towards Europe, NATO allies said US membership and commitment is indispensable for NATO deterrence.
"But we will have to drastically step up," said the diplomat.
Although Rubio intends to present a clear message to the Europeans, the foreign affairs ministers plan to inform him that the perceived shift of US focus away from its customary allies may not be advantageous as the country redirects its attention towards addressing challenges in the Indo-Pacific region.
"We will inform him that now is not the appropriate time for going solo; the benefit of remaining aligned with Europe compared to leaning toward China and Russia is having 32 robust democracies supporting us; Europe purchases significantly from US corporations – our imports from America far exceed those from Europe," stated the diplomat.
Various European diplomats have informed DIWIDA.Blog that they do not anticipate the threatening statements from the Trump administration about annexing Greenland—a self-governing part of Denmark—or incorporating Canada as the 51st U.S. state will be central topics of conversation. However, Secretary of State Rubio is scheduled to hold a one-on-one meeting with Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen.
When faced with the requirements outlined by the Trump administration, which will also be supported by Rubio, Rutte informed reporters, “let’s take pleasure in the achievement of having collectively invested €700 billion euros since 2017.”
President Trump and US Defense Secretary Hegseth have stated that NATO expenditure must significantly rise from 2% to 5% of GDP, placing considerable strain on member countries like Spain, Italy, and Belgium, all of which currently fall short of the current target.
Europe must "evaluate precisely the objectives we aim to reach and identify the gaps present," he stated, further noting: "There is a requirement for enhanced long-range capabilities, improved air defense systems, and increased investment in our military forces."
When examining the overall figure, one can deduce that allies will need to spend well over 3% to achieve those goals.