By Joyce Ojanji
Global deaths from HIV/AIDS and new infections could soar to levels unseen since the start of the century if planned funding cuts to foreign aid are sustained, undermining years of progress, experts warn.
A study published in the journal The Lancet HIV estimates there could be 4.4 million to 10.8 million additional new HIV infections by 2030 in low- and middle-income countries and 770,000 to 2.9 million HIV-related deaths in children and adults.
The administration of US President Donald Trump has severed support for humanitarian work worldwide—including withdrawing the US from the World Health Organization and freezing funding for the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) and the US Agency for International Development (USAID).
Other major international donors, such as the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and the Netherlands, which together with the US, account for over 90 percent of global aid, have also announced plans to implement significant cuts to foreign aid.
According to the researchers, collectively, it could lead to a 24 percent reduction in global international HIV funding by 2026.
‘’We will see it come back and we [will] see people dying the way we saw them in the 90s and in 2000s. Looking ahead, if other donor countries reduce funding, decades of progress to treat and prevent HIV could be unravelled. It is imperative to secure sustainable financing and avoid a resurgence of the HIV epidemic which could have devastating consequences, not just in regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa, but globally,’’ Winnie Byanyima, UNAIDS executive director said.
Historically, the US has been the largest contributor to the global HIV response, investing more than US$100 billion through the PEPFAR since it was established in 2003.
However, cuts to PEPFAR and USAID-supported programmes have already severely disrupted access to essential HIV services, including for antiretroviral therapy and HIV prevention and testing, says Debra ten Brink of the Burnet Institute, Australia, co-lead author of the study.
Separately, the head of the UN agency coordinating the fight against HIV-AIDS warned that an additional 6.3 million people will die in the next four years unless support is reinstated. This represents a “tenfold increase” from the 600,000 AIDS-related deaths recorded globally in 2023, she said.
Byanyima also predicted an additional 8.7 million new infections—up from 1.3 million new infections globally in 2023.
The greatest impact would likely be in Sub-Saharan Africa and among vulnerable populations, including people who inject drugs, sex workers, men who have sex with men, and children, according to the researchers.
They called for a multipronged approach to help offset the effects of sudden funding cuts and build long-term sustainability.