The visit by the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Sri Lanka is viewed as New Delhi’s latest move to offset China's growing prominence and activity in the island country, with analysts pointing out a significant defense agreement set to be inked by the two neighboring nations.
During Modi's visit this weekend, New Delhi and Colombo aim to finalize crucial accords including the establishment of solar power facilities, building upon discussions initiated when Sri Lanka’s President Anura Kumara Dissanayake paid his visit. India in December.
The two nations will enhance their commercial exchange, particularly in sectors like textiles, pharmaceuticals, and IT, and they are expected to ink a defense agreement, as per reports from Indian media outlets.
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Experts indicated that the defense agreement was poised to mark one of the major advancements in ties between New Delhi and Colombo recently, as both parties anticipated enhancing their military collaboration via shared maritime monitoring activities, joint drills, and logistical assistance.
Modi will be the first foreign leader to receive Dissanayaka, who was inaugurated into his position back in September of the previous year.
Michael Kugeman, who leads the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center, noted that this visit occurred as both India and China are increasingly competing to strengthen their relationships with the countries along the coast of South Asia, such as Sri Lanka.
Dissanayake is among the various recently emerged regional leaders who are seen as being more supportive of China compared to their predecessors. Therefore, this presents an opportunity for Modi to emphasize the significance of cooperation with Sri Lanka, all while seeking to leverage initiatives aimed at curbing China’s impact and presence in the area,” stated Kugelman.
While visiting Beijing in January, Dissanayake had an audience with President Xi Jinping China and Sri Lanka reached an agreement for increased investment and economic collaboration, which includes a $3.7 billion pact with Sinopec to establish an oil refinery in Hambantota.
Both parties signed fifteen cooperative documents, which included areas such as economic and technological advancement along with China'salignment. Belt and Road Initiative along with Sri Lanka's plan for a digital economy by 2030.
Economic collaboration between India and Sri Lanka has proven to be an easy win for their partnership, and thus further advancements in this area are anticipated,” Kugelman remarked, highlighting that New Delhi offered substantial assistance to Colombo when Sri Lanka faced its 2022 economic crisis.
It is reported that India offered its neighbor an assistance package worth $4 billion. This enabled Colombo to uphold crucial imports and keep adequate foreign exchange reserves, thereby preventing defaults on obligations to various lenders such as the International Monetary Fund.
Sriparna Pathak, who serves as an associate professor of Chinese studies and international relations at O.P. Jindal Global University, stated that India aimed to position itself as a security ally within the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). She highlighted that Sri Lanka’s crucial geographical placement along with its expanding naval strength played significant roles in achieving this objective.
Modi's 2015 Sagar initiative, which emphasized a free, open, and secure Indian Ocean, was in stark contrast to China's approach of debt-driven diplomacy in the area, she noted.
Pathak mentioned that India has contributed to combating piracy and offered humanitarian aid along with economic development to nations in the Indian Ocean Region, such as Sri Lanka.
Sri Lanka has frequently been accused by critics of succumbing to what is known as a Chinese 'debt trap'. This occurs when the country accepts questionable loans for infrastructure development, which could potentially enable China to take control of these assets during periods of economic hardship.
Regarding a report on the debt risks encountered by developing nations due to borrowing under the Belt and Road initiative, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning stated in 2023 that “Beijing has never compelled anyone to take out loans or pressured any nation to accept debts.”
At a routine press conference, she stated: "Our loan agreements come without any attached political conditions, and we do not pursue any political gain for ourselves."
As the competition between the United States and China intensifies, Beijing might be prompted to make more significant moves in the Indian Ocean Region. In an effort to counterbalance America’s rising tariffs, China may pursue additional trade agreements with Sri Lanka, according to Pathak.
Regarding the defense agreement set to be signed between India and Sri Lanka, Pathak stated that the accord aims to protect the Indian Ocean Region from increasing rivalry and establish India as a dependable cornerstone within the area.
This accord was notable because it marked the first official defense agreement since the "controversial" dispatch of the Indian peacekeeping contingent to Sri Lanka between 1987 and 1990.
Viewed as India's involvement in the Sri Lankan civil conflict at that time, the forces were sent to oversee a truce and ensure the handover of arms from Tamil insurgents.
The agreement signifies both parties' readiness to close that particular chapter in history and focus instead on addressing current security requirements rather than dwelling on past issues," Pathak stated, further noting that this accord will assist in mitigating China’s growing influence in the area.
Regarding Sri Lanka, the agreement presented an occasion to enhance its security strengths as it aimed for economic recuperation, she mentioned additionally.
Pathak mentioned that Beijing’s management of Sri Lanka's Hambantota port along with the berthing of China’s suspected surveillance ship, Yuan Wang 5, in 2022 have intensified worries in New Delhi regarding potential encirclement and increased espionage activities close to India’s southern coastline.
In 2017, Sri Lanka declared that the poorly performing Hambantota port, constructed by China, would be leased for 99 years to a firm associated with the Chinese government.
The arrival and berthing of the Yuan Wang 5 at the Hambantota port were cloaked in mystery, with experts characterizing the ship as part of China’s most recent class of vessels designed for tracking space missions. These ships have the capability to observe satellite deployments, rocket liftoffs, and even launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles.
Kugelman stated that the aftermath of the civil war had a significant impact on Sri Lanka, notably due to India’s backing of the Tamil insurgents.
Between August 1983 and May 1987, India supplied weapons, conducted training sessions, and offered financial assistance to six Sri Lankan Tamil rebel organizations, which included the LTTE, also known as the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam.
"Mistrust arising from that past has hindered substantial progress in defense collaboration. If finalized, this new framework agreement for defense cooperation could mark a significant step in bilateral ties," Kugelman stated.
Rajni Gamage, a research fellow at the National University of Singapore's Institute of South Asian Studies, noted that the defense pact might compel Colombo into a "strategic alliance" with India.
"She noted that this makes it challenging for the Sri Lankan government to guarantee their Chinese partners that they will adhere to strategic interests," adding that China seems to be moving away from big infrastructure investments towards smaller, community-focused projects in the country.
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The article initially appeared on the South China Morning Post (www.scmp.com), which is the premier source for news coverage of China and Asia.
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