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Trump Stands Firm on Tariffs, Deems Them 'Medicine' as Markets Tumble

Unknown economic policy, government, international economics, news, politics

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 President Donald Trump stated on Sunday that he will not retreat from his broad tariff measures on imports from most nations until those countries balance their trade relationships with the United States.


 He is steadfastly pursuing his agenda to introduce these taxes, leading to volatile reactions in financial markets, sparking concerns about an economic downturn, and disrupting the worldwide trade framework.

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 U.S. President Donald Trump at Miami International Airport, Florida on April 3, 2025. Image captured by AFP
 
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 While speaking with journalists onboard Air Force One, Trump stated that he did not wish for global markets to decline; however, he was not particularly worried about the significant drop either. He further commented, “Occasionally, you need to take some medicine to address an issue.”


 His remarks were made as international financial markets seemed poised to maintain their steep drops when trading resumed on Monday. This followed efforts by Trump’s advisors to calm market worries, stating that over 50 countries had contacted them expressing interest in initiating talks aimed at reducing the tariffs.


 "Many leaders from Europe, Asia, and various parts of the globe have spoken to me,” Trump stated. “They are eager to strike a deal. However, I told them that we won’t run up deficits with their countries. For me, a deficit means losing money. Instead, our aim will be to achieve surpluses, or at minimum break even.”


 Starting Wednesday, increased rates will come into effect, marking the dawn of a period marked by economic unpredictability without an apparent conclusion. According to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, unjust trading tactics cannot simply be resolved through negotiations lasting mere days or weeks. He emphasized that the U.S. needs to assess what these nations propose and determine if their offers hold credibility.


 Trump, who spent the weekend in Florida playing golf, posted online that "WE WILL WIN. HANG TOUGH, it won’t be easy." His Cabinet members and economic advisers were out in force Sunday defending the tariffs and downplaying the consequences for the global economy.


 We don't necessarily have to face a recession," Bessent stated. "It’s uncertain how the market will respond over the next few days or weeks." He added, "Our focus is on establishing strong long-term economic foundations for growth and success.


 On Sunday night, U.S. stock futures declined due to ongoing tariff concerns affecting the market. Futures for both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 decreased by approximately 4%, whereas Nasdaq futures plummeted almost 5%. Additionally, Bitcoin, which had remained fairly steady throughout the previous week, saw a drop of around 6% on Sunday.


 Trump’s tariff
 On April 2, blitz carried out a crucial pledge from his campaign by unilaterally reshaping international trade regulations. This step had been years in the planning for Trump, who has consistently criticized overseas trade agreements as detrimental to America. His strategy hinges on the assumption that citizens will accept increased costs for common goods in order to implement his economic plan.


 Countries are scrambling to figure out how to respond to the tariffs, with China and others retaliating quickly.


 Top White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett acknowledged that other countries are "angry and retaliating," and, he said, "by the way, coming to the table." He cited the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative as reporting that more than 50 nations had reached out to the White House to begin talks.


 Adding to the turmoil, the new tariffs are hitting American allies and adversaries alike, including Israel, which is facing a 17% tariff. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to visit the White House and speak at a press conference with Trump on Monday, with his office saying the tariffs would be a point of discussion with Trump along with the war in Gaza and other issues.


 Vietnam, a major manufacturing center for clothing, has also been in touch with the administration about the tariffs. Trump said Vietnam’s leader said in a telephone call that his country "wants to cut their Tariffs down to ZERO if they are able to make an agreement with the U.S." And a key European partner, Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni, said she disagreed with Trump’s move but was "ready to deploy all the tools — negotiating and economic — necessary to support our businesses and our sectors that may be penalized."


 Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick made clear there was no postponing tariffs that are days away.


 "The tariffs are coming. Of course they are," he said, adding that Trump needed to reset global trade. But he committed only to having them "definitely" remain "for days and weeks."


 In Congress, where Trump’s Republican Party has long championed free trade, the tariff regiment has been met with applause but also significant unease.


 Several Republican senators have already signed onto a new bipartisan bill that would require presidents to justify new tariffs to Congress. Lawmakers would then have to approve the tariffs within 60 days, or they would expire. Nebraska GOP Rep. Don Bacon said Sunday that he would introduce a House version of the bill, saying that Congress needs to restores its powers over tariffs.


 "We gave some of that power to the executive branch. I think, in hindsight, that was a mistake," said Bacon, adding that getting a measure passed would be challenging unless the financial markets continue to react negatively and other indicators such as inflation and unemployment shift.


 Wyoming’s John Barrasso, the No. 2 member of the Senate’s GOP leadership, said Trump is "doing what he has every right to do." But, he acknowledged, "there is concern, and there’s concern across the country. People are watching the markets."


 "There’ll be a discussion in the Senate," Barrasso said of the tariffs. "We’ll see which way the discussion goes."


 Trump’s government cost-cutting guru, billionaire businessman Elon Musk, had been relatively silent on Trump’s tariffs, but said at a weekend event in Italy that he would like to see the U.S. and Europe move to "a zero-tariff situation." The comment from the Tesla owner who leads Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency drew a rebuke from White House trade adviser Peter Navarro.


 "Elon, when he is on his DOGE lane, is great. But we understand what’s going on here. We just have to understand. Elon sells cars," Navarro said. He added: "He’s simply protecting his own interest as any business person would do."


 Trump indicated he disagreed with Musk, saying Sunday of the European Union, "They want to talk, but there’s no talk unless they pay us a lot of money on a yearly basis."


 Lawrence Summers, an economist who was treasury secretary under Democratic President Bill Clinton, said Trump and his economic team are sending contradictory messages if they say they are interested in reviving manufacturing while still being open to negotiating with trade partners.


 If other countries eliminate their tariffs, and the U.S, does, too, he said, "it’s just making a deal, then we don’t raise any revenue nor do we get any businesses to relocate to the United States. If it’s a permanent revenue source and trying to get businesses to relocate to the United States, then we’re going to have these tariffs permanently. So the president can’t have it both ways."


 Bessent was on NBC’s "Meet the Press," Hassett and Summers appeared on ABC’s "This Week," Lutnick and Barrasso were on CBS’ "Face the Nation" and Navarro was interviewed on Fox News Channel’s "Sunday Morning Futures."

Trump Stands Firm on Tariffs, Deems Them 'Medicine' as Markets Tumble

Unknown economic policy, government, international economics, news, politics

President Donald Trump stated on Sunday that he will not retreat from his broad tariff measures on imports from most nations until those countries balance their trade relationships with the United S…

[트럼프의 세금 충격] "미국이 7000억 달러 관세를 부과할 수 있을까요? 그 비용은 상상 이상" - 블룸버그

Unknown economic policy, government, korean, politics, politics and government

[DIWIDA |명정선 기자]
 
 대통령 도널드 트럼프는 '상호 관세' 정책을 공식적으로 발표함으로써 미국의 무역 정책이 진짜로 보호주의적 경향성을 띠게 되었다. 그는 4월 2일 워싱턴 D.C.에 위치한 백악관에서 진행된 언론 대화 시간 동안 "우리는 이제부터 부당한 거래를 묵과하지 않을 것이며, 이를 통해 평등한 교역 환경을 만든다는 목적하에 바로 이와 같은 상호 관세 제도를 실행할 것"이라고 말했습니다. 또한, 그는 매년 약 7천 억불 규모의 세금 징수라는 목표가 다시 한번 확인되었다고 덧붙였습니다.
 

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<h4>
 
 #목표인 7,000억 달러 관세 수익, 실현 가능성에 의문 제기
 
</h4>

 
 트럼프 대통령은 미국의 현관세수익인 약 800억 달러를 대략 9배 인상하여 7천 억 달러까지 올리겠다고 공개하였으나, 블룸버그사는 이 계획을 '현실성이 없는 목표'라고 비판하였다. 블룸버그사 측에서는 "현재 제시된 7천 억 달러 규모는 미국 국내총생산(GDP)의 약 2.4%에 해당하고, 그간 1870년대 들어서 단 한번도 관세 수익이 GDP의 2% 이상 되었던 사례가 없었다"면서 또한 "2% 초과 기록이 유지되었던 시기는 오직 1820-1830년대로 매우 드물게 나타났다." 고 설명하였습니다.
 


 
 트럼프 대통령은 ‘관세 대통령’으로 알려진 윌리엄 맥킨리 전 대통령을 자주 언급하지만, 블룸버그는 “맥킨리 집권기에도 관세 수입은 GDP 대비 1%대 중반에 그쳤다”며 트럼프의 목표가 역사상 전례 없는 수준임을 강조했다.
 


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<h4>
 
 #수입 제한과 세금 수익 증대, 서로 공존할 수 있을까?
 
</h4>

 
 미국 대통령인 도널드 ترام프가 제안하는 상품 간 세금 증가는 외부에서 들어오는 물건들을 줄이는 것을 목표로 하고 있습니다. 하지만 블룸버그는 "물건들이 적게 들어오면 그만큼 세금 또한 덜 걷힐 것이고 이것은 결국 정책 자체의 문제가 될 수 있다"라고 말했습니다. 실제 전문가들은 이러한 방법으로 '수입량을 낮추면서' 동시에 '세수가 늘어나도록 하는 일'은 어렵다고 보고 있습니다.
 

<h4>
 
 #"미국 과거의 발전이 관세 때문인지는 명확하지 않다"
 
</h4>

 
 트럼프 대통령은 미국이 고율 관세로 번영했던 19세기 말 모델을 따르겠다고 밝혔지만, 블룸버그는 “미국이 19세기 후반 고율 관세 속에서 경제대국으로 성장한 것은 사실이나, 관세가 성장의 주된 원인이라고 보기는 어렵다”고 평가했다. 현재 선진국 중 관세 비중이 높은 국가는 뉴질랜드, 호주, 러시아에 불과하며, 대부분의 선진국은 낮은 관세 구조를 유지하고 있다.
 


 
 특히 블룸버그는 “7,000억 달러 관세 수입을 실현하면 미국은 GDP 대비 관세 비율 기준으로 세네갈과 몽골 수준으로 후퇴하게 된다”고 지적했다. 현재 미국 국민은 세네갈 국민보다 17.3배, 1900년대 미국 국민보다 10배가량 부유한 상황에서, 굳이 과거의 보호무역으로 돌아갈 필요가 있는지 의문이라는 것이다.
 

<h4>
 
 #블룸버그 "가능성과 경제적 타당성이 모두 의심스럽다"
 
</h4>

 
 브룸버그는 "트럼프 대통령의 약속은 단순히 과거 세금 방식의 재등장이 아닌, 역사를 통틀어 최고 수준의 관세 중심 정책으로 귀결될 가능성이 크다"라고 분석했습니다. 그는 또한 "이런 형태의 관세 시스템이 실제로 미국의 물가와 소비자 그리고 산업 경쟁력을 어떻게 변화시킬 지에 대한 심도 있는 토론이 요구된다"고 말했습니다.
 


 
 속보는 DIWIDA |텔레그램으로(클릭)
 


 
 같이 보면 좋은 기사
 

<blockquote class="wp-embedded-content">
 
 [트럼프의 세관 징수 충격] "더 나쁜 상황 발생... 국가와의 '교섭'이 핵심" (비트코인이 폭락하며)
 
</blockquote>

[트럼프의 세금 충격] "미국이 7000억 달러 관세를 부과할 수 있을까요? 그 비용은 상상 이상" - 블룸버그

Unknown economic policy, government, korean, politics, politics and government

[DIWIDA |명정선 기자] 대통령 도널드 트럼프는 '상호 관세' 정책을 공식적으로 발표함으로써 미국의 무역 정책이 진짜로 보호주의적 경향성을 띠게 되었다. 그는 4월 2일 워싱턴 D.C.에 위치한 백악관에서 진행된 언론 대화 시간 동안 "우리는 이제부터 부당한 거래를 묵과하지 않을 것이며, 이를 통해 평등한 교역 환경을 만든다는 목적하에 바로…

How Will New U.S. Tariffs Affect European Wallets?

Unknown economic policy, economics, european economy, international economics, international trade

The implementation of a 20% tariff on goods from Europe might result in deflation, causing decreased price levels within Europe.


 This could result from a rise in production both from China and within the European Union.


 "One factor contributing to reduced pricing within the EU will undoubtedly be increased exports from nations such as China, whose goods are increasingly directed toward European markets," said Niclas Poitiers, a researcher at the Bruegel institute, to Euronews.


 "The second reason explaining how Europe might experience a decline in prices is that certain exports intended for the United States are now staying within the European markets," he further stated.


 Suppose you currently impose high custom duties on Italian wine; as a result, more of this wine may enter the single market, leading to lower product prices.


 Reduced prices appear to boost the purchasing power and consumption among Europeans, which could consequently foster economic growth.


 However, on the contrary, deflation can be detrimental to the economy since it prompts families to delay their buying decisions, anticipating even lower prices in the future.


 This leads to a cycle where decreasing salaries result in increasing joblessness. Thus, we might pay less for goods, yet at what cost?

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<h2>
 Uncertainty ahead
</h2>

 According to Tobias Gehrke, who works as a researcher for the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), the biggest threat to the economy stems from uncertainty.


 "These tariffs are across-the-board. They will impact all goods and exports moving from Europe to America, including items like machinery, chemicals, and automobiles. This could potentially impose a significant burden on these businesses," he explained to Euronews.


 The primary concern I see is the significant risk posed by this uncertainty. It might lead businesses to refrain from investing in Europe, which could result in detrimental consequences for employment and economic expansion within a period of several months or years.


 However, economists don't have a crystal ball, and there are many unknown factors that make predictions difficult.


 In particular, China's reaction and the EU's response will weigh heavily in the balance, while US President Donald Trump could also use tariffs as leverage in other negotiations.

How Will New U.S. Tariffs Affect European Wallets?

Unknown economic policy, economics, european economy, international economics, international trade

The implementation of a 20% tariff on goods from Europe might result in deflation, causing decreased price levels within Europe. This could result from a rise in production both from China and with…

M Hanif Dhakiri: Penurunan Belanja dan Arus Pemudik Jadi Indikasi Tekanan Ekonomi yang Semakin Berat

Unknown business, economic policy, economics, news, politics

DIWIDA
 
 Wakil Ketua Komisi XI DPR, M Hanif Dhakiri, menyatakan bahwa pengurangan kemampuan membeli masyarakat saat Idulfitri tahun 2025 tidak sekadar kejadian sementara, tetapi menjadi indikasi jelas dari beban ekonomi yang kian terasa oleh warga negara.


 Hanif mengatakan bahwa Lebaran seharusnyamembuat orang lebih bersemangat dan penuh harapan, tetapi yang terjadi kali ini malah perasaan khawatir dan ketidakpastian.


 "Konsumsi menurun, jumlah pemudik berkurang, dan aliran dana menjadi terbatas. Hal ini tidak hanya masalah pilihan, tetapi juga indikasi bahwa kehidupan orang awam semakin sulit," kata Hanif ketika diwawancara pada hari Rabu (3/4/2025).


 Data dari Kementerian Perhubungan mengindikasikan penurunan angka pemudik sebesar 24% jika dibandingkan dengan tahun sebelumnya.


 Pelaksanaan pertukaran mata uang baru oleh Bank Indonesia hanya menggapai kira-kira 30 persen dari jumlah keseluruhan yang telah dipersiapkan.


 Di sisi lain, berbagai petunjuk seperti deflasi bulan Februari serta pengurangan dalam Indeks Penjualan Riil semakin menguatkan dugaan bahwa pemakaian belanja oleh keluarga tengah menurun.


 Menteri Tenaga Kerja Republik Indonesia pada masa jabatan tahun 2014 hingga 2019 menegaskan bahwa kestabilan makroekonomi menjadi hal yang penting tetapi tidak cukup signifikan apabila belum disertai oleh kenyataan perekonomian masyarakat biasa.


 Pertumbuhan ekonomi mungkin meningkat, tetapi apabila warga negara mengendalikan pengeluaran, ini berarti mereka merasakan ketidakamanan. Banyak orang kini hanya membeli kebutuhannya saja, ujar Hanif.


 Menurut dia, ini seharusnya menjadi fokus utama bagi pemerintah. Ia menegaskan, tidak boleh ada kesan puas diri pada pihak pemerintahan meskipun statistik agregat tampak positif.


 Hanif pun mendukung percepatan distribusi bantuan sosial, memperkuat subsidi yang secara langsung mencakup kebutuhan pokok, serta memberikan dukungan nyata untuk sektor Usaha Mikro, Kecil, dan Menengah (UMKM) dan pekerja tidak formal yang menjadi tulang punggung ekonomi masyarakat.


 "Negara perlu muncul dengan kekuatan dan ketegasan yang lebih besar. Jangan biarkan warga negeri berjuang sendirian melawan tekanan ekonomi. Hal ini berkaitan erat dengan kepercayaan publik. Bila pemerintah tidak segera menindaklanjuti, maka jatohnya bukan cuma kemampuan membeli barang-barang saja, tetapi juga harapannya akan lenyap," kata Hanif.


 Sebelumnya, Departemen Transportasi mengestimasi bahwa jumlah pemudik untuk Idulfitri tahun 2025 akan mencapai 146,48 juta orang atau kira-kira 52% dari seluruh populasi di Indonesia. Estimasi tersebut dibuat berdasarkan pada penelitian yang dilakukan bersama Lembaga Penelitian Harian Kompas.


 Proyeksi untuk masa mudik Lebaran tahun 2025 menurun sebesar 24% jika dibandingkan dengan proyeksi pada periode yang sama di tahun 2024, yaitu sekitar 193,6 juta orang. Namun, realisasi jumlah orang yang melaksanakan perjalanan selama masa tersebut adalah 162,2 juta individu.


 Di sisi lain, Wakil Ketua Umum Kamar Dagang dan Industri (Kadin) Indonesia Bidang Pengembangan Otonomi Daerah Sarman Simanjorang mencatat bahwa penurunan jumlah pemudik juga berdampak pada pengurangan arus perputaran uang saat liburan Idulfitri tahun 2025.


 Jika dibandingkan dengan Lebaran tahun 2024, perkiraannya putaran uang pada Lebaran di tahun 2025 akan berkurang sebesar 12,28 persen.


 Sebagai contoh, apabila diasumsikan bahwa volume transaksi pada saat Idul Fitri tahun 2024 mencapai angka Rp 157,3 triliun, maka untuk periode yang sama di tahun 2025 diperkirakan akan turun menjadi sekitar Rp 137,97 triliun. Angka prediksi ini didasarkan pada perkiraan jumlah pemudik yang mencakup 146,48 juta orang atau setara dengan kisaran 36,26 juta kepala keluarga, dengan asumsi rata-rata empat individu tiap rumah tangga.


 Penghitungan itu merujuk pada besarnya uang ratarata yang dipegang oleh tiap kepala keluarga mudik sebesar tiga juta tujuh puluh lima ribu rupiah, atau meningkat sepuluh persen dibandingkan dengan Lebaran tahun 2024. Berdasarkan hal itu, estimasi putaran uang diproyeksikan akan menyentuh angka seratus tiga puluh tujuh triliun sembilan puluh tujuh miliar rupiah. Nilai ini umumnya berada dalam kisaran minimum dan cukup wajar. (*)


 
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M Hanif Dhakiri: Penurunan Belanja dan Arus Pemudik Jadi Indikasi Tekanan Ekonomi yang Semakin Berat

Unknown business, economic policy, economics, news, politics

DIWIDA Wakil Ketua Komisi XI DPR, M Hanif Dhakiri, menyatakan bahwa pengurangan kemampuan membeli masyarakat saat Idulfitri tahun 2025 tidak sekadar kejadian sementara, tetapi menjadi indikasi…

Wall Street Expected Scott Bessent to Tame Trump. His Plans Were Different.

Unknown economic policy, economics, government, politics, politics and government

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 Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who fits the stereotype of a successful hedge fund manager, has rapidly emerged as one of the administration’s most vocal supporters of policies that are reshaping international commerce and causing turbulence in financial markets.


 The intentional, technical Wall Street seasoned professional who previously advocated for the phased introduction of fresh trade restrictions has now become an outspoken supporter of President Donald Trump’s updated MAGA agenda. This shift highlights that immediate market responses take a back seat to key administration goals like extensive tariff measures.


 When financial markets experienced their steepest decline in many years this week, Bessent appeared on TV earlier this month advocating for the U.S. to "wean" itself from excessive government expenditure. His remarks at a recent event drew attention when he stated that “having access to inexpensive products does not define the American Dream.” Additionally, he expressed minimal worry over the immediate economic effects of imposing tariffs.


 When asked about a recent downturn in the markets where the S&P 500 fell over 10 percent below its latest high point, he stated that "corrective moves are normal."


 “What’s unhealthy is having exuberant market conditions,” he stated while appearing on NBC's "Meet the Press" on Sunday. “That’s when financial crises tend to occur.” He continued, “I’m not concerned about the stock market itself. In the long run, implementing sound tax policies, reducing regulations, and ensuring energy security will lead to strong market performance.”


 This did not align with what numerous people on Wall Street anticipated.


 He most certainly hasn’t delivered the performance that the market anticipated up until now," stated Sarah Bianchi, a senior managing director at the investment banking advisory firm Evercore ISI. "It’s always challenging for anybody to determine when and how they should approach the President with the message that significant changes are necessary—this is especially true in what we might call 'Trump 2.0'.


 Bessent’s subdued assurances to the financial markets indicate that there might not be anyone within the administration ready to oppose Trump’s strengthened push for overhauling U.S. economic policies. Fluctuations in the stock market, coupled with guidance from traditional economic policymakers such as Steve Mnuchin, who served as Trump’s initial Secretary of the Treasury, previously assisted in moderating the president’s protectionist and possibly disastrous agendas during his time in office.


 "Now, 'the safeguards that were present during the initial administration no longer exist,'” stated a former Trump administration official, requesting confidentiality to allow for honest discourse.


 The early positive response from Wall Street to Bessent, a protegé of George Soros with limited experience in Republican politics prior to aligning himself with Trump, might have underestimated his zeal for supporting the president's policies.


 Jens Nordvig, the founder of Exante Data and someone who has been acquainted with Bessent for over ten years, mentioned that the Treasury Secretary holds a strong fascination with geopolitical matters, specifically focusing on limiting China’s influence.


 Bessent isn't as protective as his superior — "I believe he understands that significantly increasing tariffs comes with substantial economic drawbacks," Nordvig stated — however, this doesn't automatically mean he would oppose duties to the extent that Mnuchin did during his term.


 The initial priorities of the administration have been marked by significant declarations impacting trade relations with China, Canada, and Mexico—primarily steered by the White House, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. There exists an acknowledged but unspoken competition between Bessent and Lutnick; both vied for Trump’s endorsement to head the Treasury Department. According to someone privy to the interactions surrounding Bessent—who wished to remain anonymous—the Treasury secretary has found themselves treading cautiously amid pressure from President Trump, White House trade advisor Peter Navarro, and Lutnick regarding the imposition of tariffs.


 He needs to be cautious not to become a Debbie Downer," the individual remarked, likening the interaction between Bessent and Lutnick to "a Brazilian knife fight in the dark.


 A representative from the Treasury stated that the secretary fully supports President Trump's plan to rejuvenate the economy and make daily living costs lower for Americans across various demographics.


 "He is relentlessly dedicated to implementing this directive on behalf of the President, ensuring that both Main Street and Wall Street benefit from President Trump’s successful economic plan," stated the spokesperson.


 Bessent has recently admitted that "a natural shift will occur as we transition from relying on government expenditure to depending more on individual spending."


 The lowest 50 percent of working Americans have been significantly impacted. We are addressing this issue," he stated while appearing on CNBC. "Is it possible that the economy we took over is beginning to stabilize? Certainly.


 Bessent’s overarching statement—that significant long-term economic benefits require accepting certain short-term difficulties—has remained unchanged, even though Wall Street was seeking some comfort.


 It’s evident to everyone that this person isn’t merely echoing market sentiments," stated Josh Lipsky, Senior Director at the Atlantic Council's GeoEconomics Center. He further explained that Secretary Bessent’s recent statements suggest "a belief that numerous aspects of the current system are flawed. Consequently, proposed policies may appear drastic but aim to rectify these perceived issues within an allegedly dysfunctional framework.


 Although many economists remain optimistic about economic expansion this year, indicators suggest that the new administration’s aggressive policies might impede growth. Economists from major banks indicate a higher probability of stagflation—or potentially even a recession—while business leaders surveyed by the Business Roundtable have scaled back their projections for upcoming hiring and investments. During an interview on Fox Business on Wednesday, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon noted that policy ambiguity is hindering mergers and acquisitions, causing investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach.


 Bessent has highlighted a recent drop in long-term lending rates associated with 10-year Treasury notes and decreased petrol prices as indicators that Trump’s plans have been advantageous for the American economy. However, he has also mentioned that the fresh set of administrative measures will pivot the economic focus away from public expenditure, suggesting there could be an adaptation phase ahead.


 There is no question that Trump has significantly influenced his perspective on the economy," stated Stephen Moore, a previous advisor to Trump and currently a senior visiting fellow at the Heritage Foundation. He also mentioned being struck by Bessent’s skillful knack for sidestepping potential pitfalls during media engagements that might provoke Trump. Regarding policy, "his approach now aligns more closely with Trump’s view of their effects on blue-collar, middle-class Americans.


 
 Victoria Guida and Declan Harty were contributors to this report.

Wall Street Expected Scott Bessent to Tame Trump. His Plans Were Different.

Unknown economic policy, economics, government, politics, politics and government

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who fits the stereotype of a successful hedge fund manager, has rapidly emerged as one of the administration’s most vocal supporters of policies that are reshaping …

[深度] 日本告別負利率時代一周年：銀行成贏家苦了消費者

Unknown banking, business, economic policy, economics, investing economy

【彭博】-- 在日本採取歷史性加息行動約一年之後，該國大型銀行的利潤飆升至紀錄高位，消費者則因物價上漲而被迫勒緊褲腰帶，與此同時，借貸成本上升加劇了圍繞政府可以如何控制支出的政治鬥爭。


 日本央行行長植田和男在一年前終結了全球最後的負利率政策及其大規模刺激計畫，底氣來自年度薪酬協議的創紀錄漲幅。這種薪資漲幅表明，消費者能夠幫助推動物價和經濟上行，支持通膨趨勢。

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 在進行了17年來的首次加息後，日本央行又在短短幾個月內加息了兩次，為1989年 —— 「泡沫經濟」頂峰時期 —— 以來最快步伐。經濟學家預計，日本央行本周將按兵不動，之後會再次加息，很可能是在7月。


 長期以來，日本央行一直認為，忍痛適應更高的物價，換取薪資、消費和經濟成長形成一個持久循環，是值得的。經濟學家和決策者看到了越來越多這個循環開始的跡象，但面對食物漲價的消費者卻不相信。


 「物價上漲速度仍然比我的工資快得多，」已婚、育有兩個孩子的50歲職員Masashi Fujii說。「而且加息對我的儲蓄沒有任何影響。」

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 持續的通膨正在加快日本的變化。企業更願意將成本的成長轉嫁給客戶。對未來會更貴的預期促使越來越多散戶投資者尋找謀養老錢的新門路，而不是依賴日益微薄的退休金。對股東更加友好的公司治理，也讓習慣於停滯的某些經濟部門更加關注利潤。


 目前而言，最大的贏家是銀行。貸款利率勢將幫助日本三大銀行在截至3月的財政年度實現創紀錄的利潤。在之前不景氣的那些年裡，它們都削減了成本。


 三井住友金融集團估計，日本加息將在截至本月的一年中為其帶來900億日圓（6.05億美元）的額外收益。它說，利率每提高25個百分點，每年就會產生1,000億日圓的額外收益。與此同時，它仍然只向儲戶支付0.2%的利息。

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 銀行股自去年3月初以來上漲了約29%，而代表大盤的東證指數僅持平。對於投資組合多元化較差的中小銀行而言，短期情況沒有那麼好，因為它們所持債券價值縮水之弊，可能會超過利率上升之利。


 由於美國和日本的利差巨大（日本現在利率仍僅為0.5%），原本有望從日本央行加息中獲得提振的日圓起初繼續走弱。在2024年，日本政府最終花了1,000億美元來支撐本幣匯率。


 現在，越來越多投資者相信日本可能會進一步加息，並在對川普關稅政策的擔憂下尋找避風港，日圓匯率又回到了首次加息前的水平，略低於1美元兌150大關。


 不過，日圓疲軟（約為13年前價值的一半）帶來了大量外國遊客，提振了酒店、餐飲和零售業。與此同時，其也加快了通膨，因為日本的大部分食品和燃料都依賴進口。

<img data-document-id="cms/api/amp/image/AA1B5aku" data-reference="image" src="https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA1B5aku.jpg"/>

 由於購買力下降，居民被迫
 節衣縮食、買打折商品
 。日本央行在考慮政策時關注的是核心通膨，但消費者感受到的是4%整體通膨率 ——  包括新鮮食品價格 —— 的影響。1月份薪資數據顯示，儘管薪水漲了，但實際薪資同比下降了1.8%。4月食品價格還料將進一步上漲。


 2024年最後一個季度的經濟成長數據顯示，實際消費持平，這表明正成長周期尚未完全顯現。


 「日本央行加息是在傷口上撒鹽，」日本央行前執行理事門間一夫說。他指的是那些背著消費貸款和按揭貸款、已然難以招架通膨的相對低收入人群。


 「富人並不太在意物價上漲，而且他們的資產會成長，因為利率上升會帶來更高的回報率，」他說。「這種差距的擴大將是政治不穩定因素。」

<img data-document-id="cms/api/amp/image/AA1B5hXF" data-reference="image" src="https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA1B5hXF.jpg"/>

 在公共廣播公司NHK的最新民調中，對首相石破茂這屆內閣的支持率下滑8個百分點至36%，調查顯示，通膨是選民希望他解決的頭幾號問題之一。


 而對於石破茂來說，夏季大選前的這一局面可不是好事。如果他想讓執政黨有比去年10月大選時更好的表現，就必須證明，他的少數派政府能為選民做更多事情。


 原文標題
 Banks Boom And Shoppers Scrimp a Year After BOJ’s Rate Pivot


 --聯合報導 Lisa Du、Erica Yokoyama、Toru Fujioka.


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[深度] 日本告別負利率時代一周年：銀行成贏家苦了消費者